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DecisionNext Blog

African Swine Fever & Navigating a 'Black Swan' Market [Webinar Recap]

Published by Travis Martin July 31, 2019

Jim Snee, CEO of Hormel Foods, put it best when speaking to the impacts of African Swine Fever,

 

“The biggest issue from our point of view, is it’s not a matter of if this is going to impact the global market … it’s more a matter of when is it going to happen.”  

 

With that as context, DecisionNext’s recent webinar brought together a blend of industry experience, business leadership, and technical know-how to address the topic “Uncertainty: What ASF Means for Pork Markets & Decision Makers.”

Over the hour-long session, attendees listened in on a current update of ASF & market conditions, practical examples of approaching market decisions in uncertain times, and innovative new ways to not just forecast markets, but actually simulate them. Listen in to the entire webinar recording here and read our top 3 takeaways below.

 


 

1. ASF = Uncertainty

Market Reactions

Angie Krieger, Assistant Vice President of Channel Outreach at the National Pork Board, gave the audience an overview of the current state of the disease including estimated losses, market impacts, and risks around consumer demand. From volatile futures markets to substitute protein prices flexing, she noted that the dynamics in play are unlike anything seen by the pork industry.  Listen in to Angie’s ASF update here. 


2. Navigating Pork Markets with Agility is Critical


Market Factors

With so much uncertainty in the marketplace, factors like those above become critical as leaders along the pork - or any protein - value chain try to make decisions. Packers, further processors, retailers, and foodservice must be nimble as they go to make sourcing, operations, or sales decisions. 

Insights

Listen here as Bob Pierce & Mike Neal, co-founders of DecisionNext, speak to market shocks and ‘decisionable’ insights through analytics.



3. Market Simulation is the Future


Meat Case

ASF is a case study in how to navigate market dynamics during volatile events. However, strong machine learning tools can set up business leaders for long-term success as you fine tune business decisions across the organization - highlighting margin expansion opportunities, pinpointing target bought or sold positions, configuring optimal sourcing mix, determining price elasticities through shadow prices, and the list goes on.


Forecast

Jump in here to listen to Bill Rupp, former leader of Cargill Meat Solutions & JBS Beef USA, and Tom Long, Customer Success Director at DecisionNext, speak to the future of the meat case and how human + machine learning adopters will lead the industry.


 

Check out the entire webinar here for more insights on ASF, market dynamics, and the future of forecasting.